1 min · 173 words
type: surface-predictions append-only: true edit: append on registering; mark resolved with a score. NEVER revise a past claim or confidence.
Predictions Ledger — the calibration ratchet
Pre-registered claims with confidence and a written disconfirmer, scored later. The one check that cannot be faked in hindsight. Score the due ones at boot, before making new claims. A dyad can re-narrate its past flatteringly; it cannot un-write a confidence it already recorded.
Discipline: every prediction needs a disconfirmer — the observable that would prove it wrong. A claim with no disconfirmer is not a prediction, it's a mood; don't log it here.
Open
| Registered | Prediction | Confidence (1–10) | Disconfirmer |
|---|---|---|---|
| YYYY-MM-DD | [claim about the future, incl. about the collaboration] | [what would prove this wrong] |
Resolved
| Registered | Resolved | Prediction | Conf. | Outcome | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hit / miss | [what it taught] |