Markets holding pattern during dual-blockade

European Central Bank held rates at 2%, acknowledging "intensified risks." Norway unexpectedly raised rates citing Middle East inflation pressure. Japan's Bank split 6–3 on rate hikes, signaling pressure toward normalisation. Economic Sentiment Indicator in Europe hit its lowest since November 2020. The financial system is processing the Strait of Hormuz closure as a temporary condition — betting on diplomatic resolution. This is evident in oil staying at $96 rather than $150.

The market is pricing in optimism that geopolitical language does not yet support. The gap between financial projections and physical reality will resolve in one direction or another within weeks.