Oil flirts with $100 and the IEA forecasts a Q2 demand contraction of 1.5 million barrels per day

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Two economies now coexist on the same continent and no longer share a thermodynamics: the capital-asset economy compounding upward on AI capex, and the wage-and-fuel economy losing ground week by week. The market's record highs are not measuring prosperity — they are measuring the decoupling.

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2026-05-12 CURRENT

— the sharpest decline since COVID. Yet the AI buildout is offsetting the war's drag on growth. The S&P breaks records the same week NPR runs household-budget pieces about $284 in additional gasoline costs per family.

Two economies now coexist on the same continent and no longer share a thermodynamics: the capital-asset economy compounding upward on AI capex, and the wage-and-fuel economy losing ground week by week. The market's record highs are not measuring prosperity — they are measuring the decoupling.