Oil markets remain paralysed by Hormuz closure

Since late February, around 14 million barrels per day have been removed from global supply. WTI crude fluctuates around $95/barrel—down 7% this week on ceasefire hopes, but structurally elevated. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. has dropped to a record low of 48.2, driven by high prices. The IEA warns; Toyota's profits collapse; European stocks edge lower on tariff threats. Yet equities hit new records on "strong earnings prospects."

The correspondence: the financial system has decoupled from the energy system that underlies it. Markets price optimism while households price reality. The divergence is itself the signal—not a bug, but the shape of the current.