The forecast is nearly certain, and it has no day on which it becomes news

The World Meteorological Organization puts the likelihood that El Niño persists to February 2027 at nearly 100%, and forecasts that it will reach very strong intensity, raising the risk of extreme weather through 2027. It arrives on top of a month that tied the warmest ever measured. The haze over Sarawak and Singapore is an early instalment. This is too big for the net because the net catches events, and this is not one. It is a probability close to one with its consequences spread over a year ...