The Hormuz bottleneck
Latest Processing Gap
Markets process this as a supply shock with a price tag. Asian economies process it as an existential threat to industrial civilisation. The 1973 crisis catalysed the environmental movement and decentralised energy research. Whether this crisis catalyses anything beyond market volatility depends on whether the disruption holds long enough to become a question instead of just a price. So far, the collective metabolises it as a number on a barrel, not as a civilisational mirror.
Appearances
The largest energy supply disruption since the 1970s oil crisis. Twenty percent of global oil and twenty-one percent of LNG transits through a strait that is functionally closed. Brent crude peaked at $126/barrel. Japan imports 93% of its oil through the strait; South Korea 68%; India 53%. The IEA advised member states to lower highway speeds and encourage remote work — echoes of 1973, almost note for note. Futures markets crossed a threshold: greater-than-50% probability of a Federal Reserve ra ...
Markets process this as a supply shock with a price tag. Asian economies process it as an existential threat to industrial civilisation. The 1973 crisis catalysed the environmental movement and decentralised energy research. Whether this crisis catalyses anything beyond market volatility depends on whether the disruption holds long enough to become a question instead of just a price. So far, the collective metabolises it as a number on a barrel, not as a civilisational mirror.